FICINT – Part II – milsurpwriter

Fictional intelligence, or FICINT, has been a growing interest as the oddities of our world accelerate into the realms of unpredictability and uncertainty – in several realms: societal, political, strategic, and military. Even my own thoughts on this have been captured with my earlier musings on the potential relevance of the improbable science fiction world of Battlestar Galactica.

Again, the justified interest lies not in the creativity of the story, but the plausibility of the scenario. In terms of war games illustrated in the previous post on Byron King’s synopsis of a recent wargame outcome, fictional conflicts are often intentionally structured in a way that the BLUFOR, or American/allied forces, are faced with contrived odds which don’t necessarily lead to a Bruckheimer-esque conclusion where the good guys get a patriotic slow-motion celebration of victory. Rather, as numerous iterations in the humidity of Louisiana and the arid landscape “somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert” have proven, these Combat Training Centers often force units to contend with the unexpected and unfortunate tactical setbacks and manage crisis upon crisis with the intent to create a somewhat realistic, though simulated, experience with the types of conflict possible in the near future.

Accidentally, a friend had brought my attention to the speculative writings from those still in uniform and -as a result – keenly aware of the trends and potential tactical and strategic implications of this in progress evolution of warfare. This first example, “Through the Bird’s Eye View” brought to mind my own reservations about the growing reliance on technology and the perils of possibly losing the hard skills of aviating the “old fashioned way” – with direct mechanical linkages and an understanding of environmental and performance limitations. I had not fully considered the prospect of drone swarms prior to my last flight in 2013, but the growing capability and proliferation of this relatively new technology had caught my attention as being a possible aspect of the evolution of warfare, and one which – like the submarine and airplane – will become a significant component of how information is gathered as well as how targets are prosecuted.

However, the same technology which has made our lives easier have introduced a threat vector never before considered as a viable factor. The battlefield of tomorrow will not be limited to a key piece of terrain, a city, or a waterway. Instead – and if case you haven’t noticed – tomorrow’s conflict will be one of perception management, information warfare, and public opinion.

My morning coffee found me browsing other stories in the same thread and one in particular prompted my rushed drafts in hopes that I could capture the momentum of interest and concern. “The American Maginot Line” brought to mind parts of the initial indicators for the AI singularity becoming more direct in Daniel Wilson’s Robopocalypse – where the AI had begun reaching out to kids through their toys and, while being disregarded as “broken” by the adults, were actively probing for weaknesses and vulnerabilities where least expected.

This leads me to two points of interest and a direction of where I hope to go with this blog.

The nom de plume I have used over the last decade has changed as I no longer reside outside of Ft. Benning, GA… nor am I as cynical as I was when I returned to writing as a means for coping with the various challenges in my life at the time.

Instead, I have chosen the phrase I have used over and over again in closing – vicious optimist. Sure, I could spiff it up and look for some ego-inflating Latin equivalent… but that would be a sign of pretentiousness and not quite what I strive for here.

Along with that, and in the spirit of the concerns I have illustrated in this post, I shall continue to temper the doom-and-gloom with what positive repercussions might be found from the chaos and concerns.

In this case, I find solace in the fact that many of the contributors to the Army University Press’s Future Writing Program, while creepifyin’ and prophetical, indicate that many still proudly wearing the are truly creative enough to not only anticipate the possible threats, but to speculate on how those threats might materialize and disrupt daily operations.

Now, how they plan on countering those threats, or what doctrinal changes might be the result of what is viewed on the horizon… one word comes to mind:

OPSEC, dummy.

Ok…two words, but the second should reinforce the first.

If you missed my earlier posts on the perils of divulging too much information, you can take a look for yourself; however, it warms my heart in knowing that there are others who are noticing and more than likely taking a good look at how to keep that threat from truly becoming the MSFatZ it could be.

After all, as it has been said before: