“Nowhere Further to Retreat”

Shoehorned into the fragments of moments where inspiration and availability align, I am compelled to muse over the transcript of Putin’s “Expanded Meeting of the Defence Ministry Board” from today, 21Dec21.

Defenders of the Motherland perform special tasks which are often highly complicated, demanding and perilous. We will make sure that they are duly rewarded for their service.

As in the previous years, the military allowance must be equivalent and even higher than the wages in the leading industries. We agreed on this with the Government several years ago.

This is an interesting tack – by offering “reward” for service and placing a competitive premium on pay, Russia appears to be making a considerable shift from previous use of conscription.

What was the pretext to bomb Yugoslavia? Was it authorised by the Security Council, or what? Where is Yugoslavia and where is the United States? They destroyed the country.

Under what pretext did they go into Iraq? It was Iraq developing weapons of mass destruction. They went in, destroyed the country, created a hotbed of international terrorism, and then it turned out that they made a mistake: “The intelligence failed us.” Wow! They destroyed a country.

How did they go into Syria? With Security Council authorisation? No. They do as they please. However, what they are doing, or trying or planning to do in Ukraine, is not happening thousands of kilometres away from our national border. It is on the doorstep of our house. They must understand that we simply have nowhere further to retreat to.

An appeal of legitimacy against actions which are portrayed to be questionable – both legally and ethically.

At the same time, this plays on my favorite concept: causality. The actions of war lead to consequences. This is nothing new – conflict always has a foundationally binary resolution: win or lose. What I find interesting, however, is the indirect appeal to placing the blame on one country for the breakup of a former Warsaw Pact nation… for the establishment of the conditions which found ISIS/ISIL replacing the reprehensible, yet stable, dictatorships they eclipsed… for many of the problems which seem to be the root of many problems shared by European nations.

Do they really think we do not see these threats? Or do they think that we will just stand idly watching threats to Russia emerge? This is the problem: we simply have no room to retreat. That is the question.

Armed conflicts and bloodshed are absolutely not our choice. We do not want to see events go that way. We want to use political and diplomatic means to resolve problems but we want to at least have clearly formulated legal guarantees.

In “Power, Politics, and Poker” from back in October 2019, I shared my views of how I correlated the “levels of strategic thought in poker” and how it was relevant to not just what was being leveraged, but by whom and what experience they brought to the table. This post remains as relevant today as it was two years ago.

However, two different factors play into what I gather as a very ominous and foreboding tone to Putin’s words…

First, they come across not as aggressive, but as matter of fact and a quite simple reflection on the choices Putin highlights as the obvious dilemma Russia finds itself. Perhaps it is because I am running past my bedtime, but I cannot shake the mental image of a “conveniently plausible villain” – one which establishes the conditions to take the actions desired and crafted long before; the assassin who “becomes” the victim in the view of the law – never mind that the events were planned quite deliberately to convey the facts at face value.

Second – and this is something I have been meaning to write about for quite some time – is the fact that our own system of governance, while admirable and amazing, is also a major part of why we never get past the first level of strategic thinking: “what do I have?”

Every two years, we hold elections for Representatives, every four years, Presidential, and every six years, Senators. The theory behind this continues to astound me – that a small group of folks over 250 years ago could craft something so…resilient and considerable… it will never be short of impressive. However… every two/four/six years we find ourselves stuck in the never-ending cycle of undoing everything from the previous administration if those political positions were held by the opposing party. One step forward, two steps back… “spin yer constituency round and round/never let the opposition gain any ground” … the “two party twostep,” really.

Meanwhile, China, Russia, and any other nation which holds substantial regional and/or global power seem to be able to craft a 10-, 15-, 20-, and 50-year plan and stick to it without the hassle of political competition and the unraveling of whatever incremental steps towards a national goal they set out upon.

Again, don’t misconstrue my words: the documents which define our nation’s origins, laws, and rights… these remain cherished and a source of awe; I swore to “defend and uphold” their principles before I understood them fully… and once I reached the age of enlightenment, I understood why they were to be defended and upheld. At the same time, those nations with long-standing political consistency and homogeny are often the very same nations with very few individual rights and protections – there is nowhere to retreat simply because the powers that be will not and can not allow any deviation from that path.

In finding the Muse for this post, quotes from a long-forgotten game kept resurfacing:

As the Americans learned so painfully in Earth’s final century, free flow of information is the only safeguard against tyranny. The once-chained people whose leaders at last lose their grip on information flow will soon burst with freedom and vitality, but the free nation gradually constricting its grip on public discourse has begun its rapid slide into despotism. Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master.

Commissioner Pravin Lal
“U.N. Declaration of Rights”

Proper care and education for our children remains a cornerstone of our entire colonization effort. Children not only shape our future; they determine in many ways our present. Men and women work harder knowing their children are safe and close at hand. And never forget that, with children present, parents will defend their home to the death.

Col. Corazon Santiago
“Planet: A Survivalist’s Guide”

The game was the turn-based sci-fi classic from 1999: Sid Meier’s Alpha Centauri, and though the wisdom is fictional, it is not entirely baseless. We have the ability to access information never before imagined, yet the ease of access fosters complacency and pliability due to overload and the neglect of convenience. At the same time, our kids determine so much of what we do and what we are capable of doing as dictated by the conditions and context of the events in which we find ourselves.

I write because I understand the value of information and perspective, and I hope that my words either provide insight or interest for my kids in years to come; but it is my hope that we shape their future accordingly and in a way which affords the best outcomes for everyone.