Thoughts on Post-U.S. Syria

“Who will replace the US forces when they leave Syria in 2019?”

ISIS, or some other militant group seeing an opportunity to assert themselves in the power vacuum.

If the conflict in Syria is defined as a “civil war,” then one would only have to look at similar examples in recent history to know that, once one major player leaves the field, the ensuing chaos establishes the conditions for the rise of brutality in the guise of “order.”

Going backwards (briefly):

ISIS gained significant traction following the departure of U.S. forces in Iraq… Now, whether or not what went on in Iraq was officially a civil war is something which could be (and will be) debated for a long time….

Libya is still a mess following the upset of national leadership in 2011, and various factions are continuing the struggle for control over territory and resources…

The Taliban came to power during the tumultuous years following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989…

…You get the idea.

I hold very little optimistic hopes for the region, as we in the West tend to fail horribly (for the most part) in understanding the historic, cultural, societal, and religious motives behind the conflicts in the Middle East.

What happens after the U.S. forces leave?

[shrug]

More of the same, regardless of Kurdish, Russian, Iranian, Israeli, or other major foreign influence.